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Post by jazzisblues on Nov 28, 2012 7:08:48 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2012 7:11:31 GMT -8
uggggggh.... I would love to see this be good. But its subscription based... and I'm poor... so Funding this would make no sense for me.
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Post by ironnikki on Nov 28, 2012 8:06:58 GMT -8
I've decided against funding this. To be honest, I think that it will be an excellent game, and I would love to see it come to fruition. The idea that things keep happening when you're not around, and that those of us that don't play 25 hours a day will still get something out of it excites me, and Golarion is a rich and established world. Additionally, the idea that player actions, particularly immediately after launch, can affect storylines is a great one.
However, this is the second Kickstarter that Goblinworks has put up for PFO. The first was for a tech demo, which was supposed to get them the funding that they needed to make the game. Now they've done an about face and are attempting to fund the game via Kickstarter. Where the heck did all of the money they got for the tech demo go? Did they just not garner enough interest from investors? I know they say that they want to push boundaries here, and that investors aren't interested in anything outside of the box, but that doesn't really make me feel better.
Despite being funded, their first Kickstarter apparently failed, and that does not inspire confidence. I'll sit this one out.
Not to mention that I'm already really enjoying GW2, and that does not have a subscription fee :-)
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HyveMynd
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Post by HyveMynd on Nov 28, 2012 16:40:49 GMT -8
However, this is the second Kickstarter that Goblinworks has put up for PFO. The first was for a tech demo, which was supposed to get them the funding that they needed to make the game. Interesting. I didn't realize their first Pathfinder KS was intended to create a demo product that would attract enough investors to fully find the final game. As you said ironnikki, the fact that didn't happen (or didn't get them enough) makes me wary. I wasn't planning on backing the project anyway as I don't play MMOs, but that makes me really wonder if anything is ever going to materialize out of this project.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 10:00:48 GMT -8
Hi! So (cringe) I promise to not be a troll, but I was skimming various forums to get a consensus about what the larger world thought about the PFO kickstarter, and this thread came up. Anyways, I was reading ironnikki's post and I think there may be some confusion about what's going on. So I'm going to try and set the record straight (at least as I interpret it). You're, of course, free to come to your own conclusions, etc etc... Its a bit of a misnomer that this is the second kickstarter that Goblinworks put out for PFO. The first kickstarter (which was for 50K) was basically to get together a development team, lease out some space, get a 3rd party engine and generally get set up - in other words it was to set up Goblinworks as a company to show investors that they aren't just some guys working out of their dad's garage. Goblinworks (the company making PFO) is commonly confused with paizo (owners of PF) but from a business point of view, they're completely separate entities. Clearly asking for 50K to make an MMO (the amount they asked for in the first game) isn't going to cut it in this day and age. So even though they got 300K, its still not enough. (MMOs incur at least a magnitude greater in cost). As for where the money went? Goblinworks sent out an update to the people who supported that kickstarter detailing where every penny went. I know, for example, that the rent for their first office was about $1000/month and the permanent offices are about $2000/month. I'm a little more confused as to why ironnikki feels that the first kickstarter failed, unless he means that it didn't generate enough investor support. Which brings us to the second kickstarter. Another common misconception in the second kickstarter is that its required in order to make the game. That's just not the case. Goblinworks has said that they have the funds to make the game. But they're like us. They don't want to wait 4 years. And so they've figured that this second kickstarter would cover the additional costs required to half the development time. That's what you're funding - accelerated dev time. They're also offering early access to the finished game - which unfortunately is being called "beta". I should clarify that too. Its not beta. The release version of the game will be made available when they let these early birds in. There will, of course, be tweaking and adding of additional content after release, but that's typical of any MMO in its first year. The difference is that they won't be affecting 500,000 players when they do their tweaks, just a few thousand. They're making the analogy to gmail's soft launch, which i think is apt. Can they do it? I can't say. Is that a good reason to have a kickstarter? That depends on your POV. Does their long-term strategy stand any chance of success? Who knows? Was this post trolling? I don't think so I tried to provide information in a non-confrontational fashion. Oh and since I don't check this site often, if theres something here i need to respond to and I don't in a few days, someone send me a pm. that should ping my inbox.
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Post by shadrack on Nov 30, 2012 10:54:26 GMT -8
interesting... Here's the part that seals the deal for me though expected delivery date of January 2016?
pass.
and it looks like the beta is opening in July of 2014? At best nothing for over a year and a half.
still pass
(geekiness alert!) oh wait! If you pay them $35 now, and the game comes out in January of 2016 for $50 It's like they are paying you 12% interest (compounded monthly)
Of course that assumes they a) put out a product and b) hit that date. So you would need to add in a factor for chance of the project dying...
if the chance of the project dying is 1% a month => 68% chance they'll put the product out So you'd be betting $35 to get $50 worth of stuff with a 68% chance it would happen. So at this point you're expected to break even.
If we move that chance of failure to 2% / month you're expecting to lose $11.
3% => -$19 4% => -$24 5% => -$28 (implies 50% that they hit the 1/1/16 date)
stupid work life getting muddled in with my hobby... (grrrr!)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 11:18:54 GMT -8
Ooooh! Can you do my taxes? Yeah, I admit the kickbacks aren't the greatest to this point. That appears to be the biggest stumbling block for people who are genuinely undecided. I think they're going to have to offer something more tangible if they want to hit their goal. I also think their goal is a tad ambitious. Which is understandable considering that their first goal was really modest and they were stunned by the support they received. Half of that (500K) might have been a wiser move. But we'll see. There is the suggestion that they were holding back on the rewards to allow the people who really wanted to get in at month one to get their spots. If that reasoning is correct then we should see additional rewards (possibly between the $50-100 range) appear in the next few days. Personally, I think that if that was their plan they miscalculated the response from their demographic. You only get one chance to make that first impression. In either case, their efforts will not go unnoticed by others in the field. This strategy will be talked about for some time.
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Post by rickno7 on Nov 30, 2012 11:56:34 GMT -8
The only thing realistic I see about this thing is the time frame. In order to get Final Fantasy 14's ridiculous launch frame, Square had to resort to outsourcing the coding of the game, which lead to a disaster of massive proportions. Though I have to wonder how much more dead MMO's that aren't named WoW are going to be by 2016. There used to be 3 so called "WoW Killers" released a year, now its down to perhaps 1, and they are actually getting worse in quality as time goes by. Anything released in the last 2 years was funded and greenlit over a decade ago. Enthusiasm for that genre is generally dead.
SWTOR was supposed to cost around $100 million. Even games that are considered "Failed games" such as Age of Conan cost $40 million. Warhammer Online was to be in the 50-75 Million range. All these people were aiming at getting 1 million subscribers a month as their "normal" amount. Less than 10% of what WoW does.
I'd be curious at what amount of player subscription they are aiming towards with 1 million dollars.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 12:48:38 GMT -8
If I could add one more thing that may make people wary or excited about the long-term success of this project. Goblinworks is saying that PFO is based on the EVE model of revenue. That is, a very small base to start off with and it will grow over years because of players dedicated to the game (even if they aren't dedicated to playing the game 24/7). The flaw in this thinking is that EVE thought about this model before producing their game and designed it accordingly. As I understand it, EVE wanted to be WoW-successful (Who wouldn't?) but failed miserably. They were stripped down to bare minimums and from that they built up their model. I understand what PFO is trying to accomplish (staged opening so as to lower their overhead, allow the game to mature and manage player issues) but I'm not certain thats a viable optionin the MMO market. We'll see. oh and to answer rickno7 - they're planning on adding 2K each month for the first couple of years. So, max 24K after 2 years at which they'll open it up to the general public. (This assumes that no one quits during their staged opening.)
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Post by inflatus on Nov 30, 2012 13:31:14 GMT -8
Fan of Pathfinder.
Not a fan of MMO's.
I'll wait until it is finished, if it finishes and maybe buy a month or two subscription.
I'll be okay with that and will still be a fan of Pathfinder.
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Post by ironnikki on Dec 3, 2012 9:47:48 GMT -8
Hey hewhocaves,
I don't think you were trolling at all, and thanks for clarifying my statements. To explain a bit more what I was trying to get at, if I'm not mistaken, one of the goals of the first KS was to develop a tech demo to generate interest from investors. The fact that Goblinworks decided to go back to KS for more funds makes me think that either (a) they failed to garner enough interest from investors to fund the game, or (b) they decided against that model after their first KS successfully completed. Granted, receiving 6x the money they asked for is pretty great, and crowdfunding a project will certainly allow for more open development, but neither of those outcomes really makes me interested in contributing.
I do have other reasons that I'm not interested, such as the subscription and exclusivity, but I'd rather put my limited income towards other projects. I think that what they're doing is cool, and I'm interested to see the outcome, but I'm not particularly interested in being a part of it (at least, not yet).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 12:59:11 GMT -8
Never was much into MMOs, but I'm primarily a fan of Pathfinder and I would like to see this project hit the ground running. I'm also extremely excited about being involved in the Beta (not really a "Beta" per se), because of my background in QA/QC. The level of detail that they're going into regarding economics, crafting, scalability/escalation/deescalation of encounters, formations and tactics, and the dynamic political system backed by persistence are some of the most alluring features that have me backing this project. I suggest that everyone take a look at the project and what they plan to do---you might find it worth your while.
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Post by ayslyn on Jan 11, 2013 23:50:53 GMT -8
Hey hewhocaves, I don't think you were trolling at all, and thanks for clarifying my statements. To explain a bit more what I was trying to get at, if I'm not mistaken, one of the goals of the first KS was to develop a tech demo to generate interest from investors. The fact that Goblinworks decided to go back to KS for more funds makes me think that either (a) they failed to garner enough interest from investors to fund the game, or (b) they decided against that model after their first KS successfully completed. Granted, receiving 6x the money they asked for is pretty great, and crowdfunding a project will certainly allow for more open development, but neither of those outcomes really makes me interested in contributing. I do have other reasons that I'm not interested, such as the subscription and exclusivity, but I'd rather put my limited income towards other projects. I think that what they're doing is cool, and I'm interested to see the outcome, but I'm not particularly interested in being a part of it (at least, not yet). Fear the Boot has a two part interview with Mark Kalmes (sp?) from Goblinworks where he explains why they went back to Kickstarter. They did get the investments that they needed to make the game. PFO will come out, no matter what happens to the KS. What the KS is for is to speed up the process. Goblinworks is a small outfit. They'll finish PFO, but it will take time. They are, right now, "happily" in the place where a cash infusion WILL speed things along, by allowing them to expand some of the teams that are working on the game. Personally, I think that using Kickstarter for this was a mistake, since it's an all or nothing event. As I understand things, IndieGoGo gives the project the money pledged, regardless of meeting some goal. That would probably been a better choice, IMO (Armchair Quarterbacking for the win!!!).
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Post by inflatus on Jan 13, 2013 18:10:56 GMT -8
Less than a day. It does not look like it is going to get funded. I think a lot of people feel a little slighted after the first Kickstarter. My hope now is that it does not get funded and the whole project falls into oblivion. The Paizo can focus on Pathfinder RPG for the table and maybe some sort of virtual tabletop.
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Post by ayslyn on Jan 13, 2013 23:43:13 GMT -8
We'll see. I've been tracking this for a while now, and it's been steadily ramping up over the last couple of weeks. It's possible that these final 12 hours or so will see the final push that they need to make it. However, if it does happen, I suspect they're gonna just squeak by.
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